Reverse is half the thrust of forward, so it may be the engine is not strong enough to handle forward, because of a blockage in a carb jet, the idle jet in particular. Or it could be there is a restriction on the shaft from an over-tight stuffing box. Does it start in forward gear, then stop?
I keep referring to the episode I had when the engine would start and run fine in neutral and reverse, but not well in forward and would stall in idle with a load. It turned out to be an almost microscopic partial obstruction of the idle jet. It could only be seen by removing the jet and holding it up to the light, and even then it was easy to miss. After running a wire from a wire brush around in the jet, it ran fine.
Your one-notch adjustment of the forward collar may have something to do with it. I would consult the Moyer video on the subject. I am more inclined to suspect a carb jet blockage. And remember to change the fuel filters when "rebuilding" the carb.
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